By Lual Magok
March 17, 2014(Nyamilepedia) — When critically look at the ongoing political shift within the Salva Kiir regime former regional and international allies who had been describing Juba regime as a legitimate and elected government when the crisis erupted. You can now relied that regional and international actors are now coming closer to understand the root causes of the ongoing crisis after being misled or living in confussion with little knowledge about the what created all these sufferings and political unrest in the South Sudan for nearly 2 years . The recent in-depth researches by the International organizations and the report of the Africa Union Committee of Inquiry has revealed all the facts and evidences required to understand the complexity and magnitude of the ongoing deadly and brutal civil strife and the envisaged potential impact on Political , Economic, social fabric and livelihood of the poor people of South Sudan to live again as citizens of one country under tribal and warlords system under Salva Kiir Mayardit who is struggling and trying claimed the legitimacy through intimidation , killing ,tortured , displacement and all forms of malpractices such as tribalism , rule of guns, bad governance , nepotism , corruption and gross human rights violation against other tribes using his own private government and private militias .
The living reality in the country has shown that, Salva Kiir regime of today refereed to tribal warmongers under private imposed cruel and genocidal leaders who are in charge of the private tribal militias. Those tribal militias are derived by their tribal and their ring leaders’ monetary interest and have no political or national agenda to bring peaceful settlement to civil strife. The imposed president Salva Kiir regime is viewing at National interest as least important and put more effort on his family and kinsmen interest and survival without vision for whole country. President Kiir is being controlled and remote by selfish individual whose mission to protect the interest of the Dinka Bhar Elgazal and the regime is being championed by interest of those who committed war crimes, crime against humanity, genocide and ethnic cleansing in Juba and other major cities in the South Sudan who against peaceful settlement of the conflict.
The world after long misled came to relied that Salva and his own private family regime supported by private militias are the reason behind the ethnic cleansing project in Juba and provoke the revenge tribal motivate target killing and human right abused throughout the country .
The recent leaked draft of AU Inquiry Committee clearly indicated that majority of the Salva Kiir regime cabinets escaped the responsibility and accountability of the Juba ethnic cleansing and other atrocities committed by the regime and put all blames and responsibility on President Kiir and his Bhar el gazal private militias which was believe to be trained , armed and directed by Salva Kiir and Commanded by Paul Malong Awan who was government of Northern Bhar El gazal State and current General Chief of Staff for the current tribal militias in charge of the Country sovereignty .
The testimonies from President inner circles including Gen Ping Deng, Gen James Hoth Mai , Gen Mach Paul, Gen Majak De Got, Gen Akol Kor and other Senior officials and military commanders clearly revealed that , the country is now in the hand tribal imposed leaders and militias who have no program for the country and the people but personal and tribal interests .
The testimonies also clearly indicated that, president Kiir entrusted all powers to his tribal militia’s leaders and abandon the national institutions which led into ethnic cleansing and gross human rights violations against innocent Nuers by his private’s militias in Juba.
The recent reports from the field has shown that Salva Kiir and his right hand man Paul Malong Awan are now commanding tribal militias who are only motivated by monetary interest and tribal agenda without central command as they claimed .
I hope the International actors understood that Salva Kiir will not be in control over the tribal militias for long time and there will be potential risk for disintegration of the South Sudan into tribal areas controlled by warlords. This will make peace more difficult as you end up dealing with more independent notorious government warlords without political agenda for the country.
The ongoing worse economic and social indicators in Juba such as daylight robbery, killing, disappearance, tortures, bank robbing, high inflation of SSP against dollar, looting of civilians properties by presidential guards and rise of crimes are the signs of total collapsed of system of government in the country.
The failures of the regime to raise money to operates the five National Universities is clearly showing the terrible conditions that regime just struggling to sustain itself as a government but at the blink of collapsed .
The mistrust between government and local populations is another big challenges and post serious threat to the regime as 60 percent of school goers children are drop out , no good health facilities , no clear water , food prices are raising on daily basis and law enforcement agencies cannot receive the monthly salary .
The recent regime hostile position against the West is another potential risk given the facts that all regional allies for Juba regime including Uganda are surviving from the good gestures of the West. This indicates that South Sudan without support from the Western World and oil revenue can collapse in least than 6 months period.
I believe with all those worse indicators on the Salva Kiir regime and continuation of the ongoing rebellion for one year again will not be easy for the current regime to sustain itself economically, politically and militarily as they perceive.
The regime allied militias who are today motivated by monetary interests will not maintain their loyalty to Juba regime without timely remuneration and up keeping for the militia leaders in Juba and other majority cities in the Country. This will created tribal areas controlled by tribal warlords operating separately from the Juba regime and more likely tribal conflict will increases at the smallest and largest scales mainly fighting between Equatorian and Nilotices, Shilluk and Dinka , Dinka and Maban , Nuer and Maban, Nuer and Dinka , Nuer and Nuer , Dinka and Dinka and so on. With all those expected internal conflicts , the South Sudan will definitely disintegrated into tribal areas like Congo, Somalia and Afghanistan which will not be for the regime , regional and international community interests.
For these facts I am urging the Salva Kiir as person to take this last chance to accept the peaceful settlement of the ongoing deadly and brutal civil strife in order to rescue this beloved country from total disintegrating into tribal areas which will be big betrayal to millions who lost their lives during the 21 years struggle and millions who voted for the independency of this country in 2011.
I also believe that , is the high time for regional and international community specially friends of South Sudan to pressurized the parties to conflict to make peace a priority before emergence of more notorious tribal militias who led by warlords derived by tribal agenda not national agenda.
I believe though civil strife impacted negatively on social fabrics of the people of South Sudan due to gross human rights violations committed on tribal basis, there still hope for better South Sudan and Salva Kiir and International community should speed up the peaceful settlement of the deadly conflict before disintegration of the current militias into warlordism and tribal areas. The choice in the hand of Salva Kiir to either disintegrates or reintegrated the Country into original shape.
The writer is concern South Sudanese Activist and can be reached via firstname.lastname@example.org