Military or Political Solution to the Conflict in South Sudan?

By Malakal C Luak C,

President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar greet after a peace talk in Arusha, Tanzania.(Photo credits: Muhidin Michuzi )

President Salva Kiir and Dr. Riek Machar greet after a peace talk in Arusha, Tanzania.(Photo credits: Muhidin Michuzi )

April 28, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — Imagine that you wake up in a beautiful morning, very excited. You turned on your laptop computer to browse South Sudan news from Nyamilepedia and Sudan tribune websites. From the headline, you have learned that Salva Kiir has announced his new government through appointments. In the Greater Upper Nile, Gordon Buay Malek was appointed as the Governor of the Upper Nile State, James Kok Ruei as the Governor of Jonglei State, Nguen Monytuil retained his position as the Governor of Unity State. In the Greater Bhar El Ghazel, Salva kept his current governors. However, in the Greater Equatoria, all the three governors were replaced by 3 politicians from Warrap State. The White Army in the Greater Upper Nile region has disbanded and surrendered their guns to Salva Kiir. All the SPLA forces operating in the Greater Upper Nile States were recruited from Northern Bhar El Ghazel and Warrap State. The hell has not gone lose yet.

Salva Kiir has also instructed his SPLA-officers to forcibly transport the Shilluk and the Nuer tribes from the Greater Upper Nile to be mixed with tribes in Bhar El Ghazel and Equatoria regions. Salva Kiir signed a contract with Indian company to use the whole greater Upper Nile for agriculture development. Three days later, Salva Kiir made a historic announcement on South Sudan Television (SSTV) that General Gatwech Dual, General Koang Chuol Ranley, General Peter Gatdet Yaka, General Tanginye, General Dau Aturjong, Dr. Riek Machar, Hon. Taban Deng, and Gen. Alfred Lado Gore, who were captured and held as Prisoners of War (POWs) by Salva Kiir, would be publicly executed for treason charges. These may not be illusions in the fantasy world if Salva Kiir were to win this war militarily.

Despite the fact that Salva Kiir believes in military solution to the armed conflict, the events on South Sudan soil indicate an opposite reality. Within this week, the Juba government has been demoralized by the loss of territories in all strategic frontlines. In Unity State, Salva Kiir’s SPLA forces have lost Wangkei Payam, Rupkona, and possibly may loss the state capital Bentiu as the fighting intensified inside the town. In the Upper Nile State, the Shilluk tribe men have finally realized Salva Kiir’s evil plans of displacing Shilluk from their land, but only to repopulate it with Dinka, an instance of the first colonialism in the 21st Century. Chollo SPLA forces backed by the Chollo White Army, under the overall command of General Johnson Olony, have driven away the vulnerable Upper Nile State government and took control of the State Capital Malakal.

They have repulsed so many SPLA-Juba reinforcements from Northern and Southern parts of Malakal, from Akoka and Baliet Counties. The Minister of Defense in Salva Kiir’s Juba government, General Kuol Manyang Juuk, packed a lot of bags with money to bribe top Chollo leaders; the Chollo leaders pocketed the money, but did not drop an inch from the conditions given to the Juba government. General Kuol Manyang refused to visit Malakal fearing to be caught and to be held as a hostage.

The Chollo demand is to replace Governor Simon Kun Puoch with a politician from Chollo tribe. General Johnson Olony also wants to replace General Johnson Gony Beliu, the SPLA-Juba Head of sector II in Division Seven of Upper Nile State. However, it is still unknown whether or not the Juba government would fire Simon Kun Puoch from the gubernatorial post and be replaced with able Chollo Governor who would sympathize with the harsh conditions faced by the Shilluk tribe in the Upper Nile State.

The SPLA-IO forces are not sleeping either. After the SPLA-Juba attacked their positions in the three states of the Greater Upper Nile, violating the IGAD-led ceasefire, SPLA-IO have gained some important territories. In just two days, Tonga, Atar, and Galechial have been captured from Salva Kiir’s SPLA. Baliet County may fall soon. In Jonglei State, Salva Kiir’s SPLA forces that were sent to attack Lou Nuer areas, have returned embarrassingly without any shootings, disobeying orders from their superiors from Juba. A president who believes in military solution to the conflict, such as President Salva Kiir, must be confident that his soldiers can gain territories from rebels in all fronts, but that is not the case so far.

It would be such a wise decision if Salva Kiir would choose political solution over military solution to the conflict in the country. On February 16th, 2007, it was reported by the IRIN News Network that a military solution is not an option in ending the war in Darfur, and instead, the parties to the Darfur conflict must agree to a peace process.

In August, 2013, the UN-Arab League envoy to Syria has called for continued political efforts, both inside the country and internationally, to end the Syrian conflict.  Lakhdar Brahimi on the BBC went on to say that there is no military solution to the conflict. On March 23, 2015, the President of Ukraine said there is no military solution to the conflict with Russia. Most of the recent historical accounts support the political means to end civil wars and the Juba government of South Sudan must understand this reality, especially when Salva Kiir’s SPLA continues to loss territories on daily basis to the SPLA/M-IO under the leadership of Dr. Riek Machar Teny-Dhurgon.

Salva Kiir may not accept to sign the IGAD-Plus peace documents, but his Juba government may completely collapse as suggested by so many experts. The prices of food items are skyrocketing in the markets. It was reported by the South Sudan Television that Governor Nyandeng Malek urged President Salva Kiir to intervene to the food shortages in Warrap State where the president comes from. Minister of Petroleum and Energy, Stephen Dhieu Dau, said the price of oil has dropped to just $10 per barrel, the cheapest price in the whole world.

South Sudan official must accept this type of humiliation because other options have been exhausted. There have been daily defections of both military officials and political leaders from the SPLA/M-Juba to the SPLA-IO under Dr. Machar leadership. The previous leaked IGAD-Plus document of final peace deal on the other hand looked unfavorable to Juba government. If political and military sanctions would be imposed to the government because of this unnecessary obstruction to peace processes, it would only be some salt on the wounds, compounding problems to Juba government. For example, arms embargo would force the Juba SPLA to their knees in all fronts and Salva Kiir would resign from presidency, giving Dinka Counsel of Elders some chance to select his replacement.

Salva Kiir’s health is also deteriorating. He recently went to Turkey to seek medical intervention. Many sources have indicated that President Kiir has recently resorted to heavy drinking of alcoholic beverages, which could lead to sudden alcohol-related death. The words that usually come out from Salva Kiir’s mouth have only been venomous or poisonous to his tribal government. Recently, he threatened the Juba national MPs to extend his terms in the office for additional 3 years or would dissolve the parliament, having said that the parliamentarians have been lazy officials who sleep on their job.

The current South Sudan Civil War has intensified in many front lines. Salva Kiir would not accept the defeat and may order reinforcements to his scattered SPLA armed forces. Nevertheless, a lot of facts from the recent past backed up the positive observation that there is no military solution to any armed conflict. While the conditions in the country have deteriorated, the international community may force the warring parties to strike a final peace deal or face sanctions, which may only harden their positions. In case Salva Kiir continues to believe in his military solution to the conflict, whatever has been the recent military policy of the SPLA/M-IO has to be maintained and promoted by giving political orientations to the frontline generals.

The SPLA/M-IO information ministry must utilize the media to inform supporters and sympathizers to the general cause and policies of the movement. The media warriors would pick it up, strike, and hurt Salva Kiir in his sensitive body parts. In the SSRA meeting held in Canada, Hon. Hussein Mar Nyuot said that it is dangerous to lose a fight to natural fools because they do not have commonsense to know when to stop bullying their opponents. Juba government is led by people as such and it is the responsibility of any supporter of the SPLA/M-IO to exert some extra efforts to topple the Juba government as quickly as possible. Aluta Continua!

Malakal C Luak C lives in Canada. He has been very active on the social media since the conflict started. He can be reached at mcluak@gmail.com 

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  22 comments for “Military or Political Solution to the Conflict in South Sudan?

  1. GatNor
    April 28, 2015 at 1:32 pm

    I couldn’t read it the first few paragraphs jolt my imagination with rage realizing the possibility of such disastrous scenario. This is the reality facing South Sudan in the hands of primitive Kiir and his tribal elders.

    Like

  2. GatNor
    April 28, 2015 at 1:46 pm

    The crumbling kingdom of the toothless Jaang elders is at its end.

    Like

    • April 28, 2015 at 6:18 pm

      The Slave/jaang/dinka government will disappear like Communist ideology together with Dr. Garang who was gun down by Kiir and Museveni while Madam Nyandeng was sleeping.

      Like

      • GatNor
        April 28, 2015 at 9:39 pm

        No kidding really is that how it happened. look at these people you murder one of the best hope for the country in front of his wife. How does one explain that to God when the real judgement day comes.

        Like

  3. Abuchook
    April 28, 2015 at 2:29 pm

    Mr Malakal
    This is your question :
    Military or Political Solution to the Conflict in South Sudan?
    Very nice question but I believed Military solution is a key here because all peaceful options have been tried and idiot Riek Machar and his crooked self servicing leaders of our Nuer people are dead visionless and hopeless.

    I THINK HISTORY HAVE TO REPEAT ITSELF SAME AS of 1991 to 1997…Riek and his murderous acts have to be defeated.
    To be honest Riek Machar has his teeth broken down and he can not bite now.

    Riek is now a commander in the hotel In Addis Ababa Sheraton Hotel and his front line commanders are busy looking for better way to be used as tool to get positions.

    It is a matter of fact and time: Riek Machar and his Idiots leaders are done loose. They will come back soon to Juba city. I have seen many Riek Machar commanders already in Akobo, and Bentiu and many other areas.

    Riek and his idiots leaders are very easily to convince and buy as long as you bribe them and satisfying their needs and wants;they will absolutely switch side back to SPLA MAINSTREAM Juba army. Riek and his murderous Commanders can not really hold longer their ground. They are not very well determine and have no courage to fight until the last man.

    THEY ARE ALL KNOW AS back stabbers and collaborators and Tribalism is inside them.

    Any time soon whenever the SPLA MAINSTREAM JUBA ARMY decides
    They can crush and dismantled the Riek Machar Group as they did In 1991 to 1997: Here are the numbers now , 10,000 SPLA-JUBA in Bortown, 20,000 SPLA-JUBA IN GADIANG DUK, 35,000 SPLA-JUBA IN pok tap and 55,000 SPLA-JUBA in Ayod and 61,000 SPLA-JUBA IN Bentiu and Unit State. All these SPLA-JUBA MAY rotating roles and responsibilities and courageous and many military hard ware and big equipments If require by threats of Riek idiots forces.

    I bet Riek Machar forces can not even think of coming to Juba again . THEY KNOW VERY WELL WHY??

    And I can not even mention
    many forces of The SPLA -JUBA that are now in Juba and many more Equatoria 3 states that are ready if needed to be.

    Now that’s the Big Power of the LION KING.

    Like

    • GatNor
      April 28, 2015 at 4:10 pm

      91 split killed your objective of united secular democratic sudan. cpa put the nail on the coofin, referendum buried that unwelcome objective and july 11 2011 anya-1&2 objective was resurrected through machar’s persisten calls for an independent south sudan. whether you like it or not that is your history I am telling you about. Nuers played a central role in making that history of yours a reality just as much as every other tribe in south sudan. Where we go from here is clear, follow machar and many nuers that had led the way. pride yes its very proud. too bad if the feeling is not mutual. Some are ment too loot and some make history and build societies. don’t feel too bad now if you are some how condemned too a life of looting bexuase in the next life time if you have any left you might liberate something ,maybe your damn self.

      Like

    • April 28, 2015 at 6:57 pm

      Mr. ABUCHOOK, you sound like a good writer, with a nice command in English language in the beginning of your comments to the question put to us by Mr. Malakal. However, as I read on through your analogy , you appeared to be like some one who used mother tongue, but whose words were carefully translated into English. This is because you answered many of the things like Mr. Kiir who always repeat 91, 91, 91, not reward the rebellion, not knowing what he himself has caused for this nation every now and then in his public address. Can you imagine what triggered 1991 split in the Movement? Ask Mr. Mabior Garang de Mabior, whose late father will remain one of the greatest heroes and pioneers of the freedom Kiir is abusing today.. Remember that the political leadership of SPLM/A descended through hierarchy during the then struggle, from Dr. Garang to Mr. Kiir? How could a high school guy rise to that height (in this advanced world) had it not been for that constitution of SPLM? If military might been the best option, why won’t we not take our country by force from Sudan since 1955, when Sudan did not hire foreign mercenaries as it is a case with Kiir today? History talks of itself my friend. You cannot try to swatch a power, as does one of the 64 tribes now. Yes, now you may talk of a few junior individuals who might have rejoined the genocidal government, however, Dr. Machar will never return to Juba before the collapse the present gvt. He (Riek), if at all, will only pick and re amend a disintegrated government. Or A political solutions may reunite S. Sudanese if God likes to pardon us by making foreign interests cease before we finish all. If military might can do something, you know very well what would have been your fate…..answer me now, why UPDF, SPLA-N, and others foreign fighters in South Sudan? You might say that …SPLM/A-IO are being backed by so and so, but make sure that it’s natural for a rebellion to be provided with fighting equipment. Why did we do that in the 80s and 90s? You said such and such number of troops are positioned in such and a such towns in South Sudan, why did not they advance and flush the rebellion, as you claim to have happened. Or are you talking of foreign forces, Why don’t they advance. Do you really know that Kiir is depleting the only scarce resources in this country by paying these mercenaries? I talked . I will answer you more next time.

      Like

      • Riek Koang
        April 28, 2015 at 9:53 pm

        Riek is already defeated, Salva should just bring him and put him as his third Vice president, he is power hungry.

        Like

  4. April 28, 2015 at 2:41 pm

    Why Sudan Tribune is very restricted to Log in?

    Like

  5. April 28, 2015 at 2:59 pm

    Sudan Tribune have been Highjack by Alienation,since they don’t allow viewers to Log on! World of freedom METHINKS.

    Like

  6. April 28, 2015 at 8:20 pm

    Kingdomship of incumbling infinity regime

    Like

  7. April 28, 2015 at 9:14 pm

    The tribalist militias will be brought to the justice by Amighty Mathiang Anyoor national army fighters and Dr. Hopeless or Dr. Maggot Riek Machar will granted nationality in Ethiopia. Now most of his tribalist commanders who don’t know any foreigners language have turn themselves to be fishermen in Akobo due to the lack of financial to finance their primitive militias. No reward to rebellions again.

    Like

  8. April 28, 2015 at 9:25 pm

    Mr. GatNor how long are you going to supporting war?

    I don’t see the solution in this conflict by rejecting peace. Please keep singing about winning the war but it is not going to happen. Those who sees former vice president as a God or Nguen dang Bong Rod are joking. The government is not the only answer for individual needs instead, everyone has to struggle for his own way to survived then, people seem to asking government in everything this is wrong brothers. The continues of war also mean there will be no development in those war zone trust me

    Like

    • GatNor
      April 29, 2015 at 7:00 pm

      I TOLD YOU I AM NOT MACHAR. IF YOU ARE NOT A COWARD YOU CAN WRITE TO HIM DIRRECTLY AND HE WILL SURELY DEBATE YOU ON YOUR 91 BOR NONSENSE AND HOW SHITTY YOU FEEL ABOUT EVERYTHING. YOU NEED COUNSELING BECAUSE YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY SUFFERING FROM SOMETHING. I AM SORRY BUT I CAN NOT HELP YOU. YOU NEED TO MOVE ON AND LOOK WITHIN AND YOU MIGHT FIND PEACE. I TOLD YOU TO STOP YOUR HATE ATTACKS ON ME. NGUNDENG YOU CAN PRAY TO HIM IF YOU BELIEVE HE IS A GOD. MAYBE THAT WILL COMFORT YOUR 91 BOR GRIEFS. IF JAANG PRACTICE WORSHIPING MEN I DONT. SO DONT UTTER MY NAME WORSHIPPING MACHAR or NGUNDENG PRIVATELY or HERE IN THE MEDIA.

      Like

  9. April 28, 2015 at 10:39 pm

    Congratulation cde GatNor for education you give to those thugs though they will never listen. Addition to what you mention is about current fighting where Juba has 30% of SPLA army plus GEM, SPLA-N, Force of David Yaw Yaw, Force of Bapiny Monytuen, Force of Johnson Olony, force of Chol Thon, force of Gwelweng, force of Mathiang Anyor and UPDF. This shown that they don’t have objective or vision, where is legitimacy they talk about here? which force is legitimate among all? where do Juba think will do to this militia force if IGAD agree to integration of SPLA IO forces? I hope those of AGUMUT, Ater, Ayiui, Riak Koang could rethink on what we are educating them. Now their problem is only SPLA-IO, they don’t care about future of South Sudan. Their problem always depend on some body who told them not to loot resources. THE ONLY FORCE WHICH EXIST AS NATIONAL FORCE AND ORGANIZED IS SPLA-IO!!!!!!!!!

    Liked by 1 person

  10. ater
    April 29, 2015 at 12:31 am

    Goweng Torbaar
    It is better eating Monitor Lizards which is a sign that food is scarce,we will not be surprised to see you thronging road to Juba soon.The mighty weapon”HUNGER” will instantly flog you to Juba in your large numbers.

    Like

  11. April 29, 2015 at 1:21 am

    Dr.Riek Machar will survive for five years only,if he makes it.He should have been in good Health in Juba if he didn’t disturbed his little Dementia brain,if didn’t ATTACKED his own government.

    Like

  12. April 29, 2015 at 1:42 am

    Those stupid speculation are real to happened from any stupid president. It’s so wise to brainstorm what might happened.

    Like

  13. ater
    April 29, 2015 at 4:34 am

    What a bad luck how could the President accept a handshake from the Lucifer-Riek.cancer prone fellow.

    Like

  14. Ayuen De Mach Wel(mocnyickedenloi
    April 29, 2015 at 6:50 am

    Although South Sudan government collapsed or Kiir go, no Nuers (greedy creatures on the planet) will never never take leadership of young nation because it need 50 yrs for Nuer to be teaches how country is ruled by Dinkas therefore it mean that Dinka will rule for this fifty years
    If you think my comment is tribalic
    PLEASE DATE BACK HISTORY OF LIBERATION

    Like

  15. Ayuen De Mach Wel(mocnyickedenloi
    April 29, 2015 at 7:07 am

    Sorry! Nuers if you think I am abusing but Riek will led u to sulphur hell if u do not abandoned him because he struggling for his seat but not yours even you will not have salaries although he come to power
    Nuers should think twice if not Nuers will be extinct

    BY GENERAL AYUEN MACH FROM BOR

    Like

  16. Albino Kosti
    April 30, 2015 at 1:02 pm

    My perception, there is not political solution to the conflict of South Sudan because the involvement of Uganda in South Sudan internal affair has complicated every effort to restore peace in the country. I am sure that the SPLM/A IN Opposition will win the current civil war of South Sudan.
    The Chollo people fought all year long against their will for the federal system give the Chollo people right to own the Upper Nile State, but they did barbaric killing against innocent Nuer people, and fighting the SPLM IN Opposition like wild eagle just in vain.

    Like

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