Uganda, South Sudan Should Prepare for an Inevitable Political Change and So Does The Entire Great Lake Region; a Case of Amama Mbabazi Declaration for 2016 Uganda Polls
A bold move many of his staunch supporters, both from within his party, the NRM and other Ugandans who have been longing for regime change wanted him to make.
In numerous occasions various media sources quoted Amama Mbabazi telling his supporters who put him in pressure days and nights to declare his presidency “I will tell you what I want to tell you when I will tell you.”
On Sunday, 14 June 2015, perhaps it is about time he told them. Amama Mbabazi made his declaration for 2016 Presidency and he released a 5:24 minute Video in YouTube entitled “My Declaration to the People of Uganda” which circulated widely in the social media attracting thousands of viewers in just few hours.
“My fellow Ugandans, I greet you wherever you are. It is a great privilege for me to address you. I come before you today, to tell you that I will be seeking your vote, first within my party, the NRM as its flag bearer; and later on in the whole country for President in the 2016 presidential elections.” Reads part of his declaration.
His declaration captured headlines in the country and stirred jubilations as well to his supporters and mixed reactions were received from his fewer critics; as he shunned the Opposition Collision leaders who expected him to join them for a greater political momentum against the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni come General elections in 2016.
When President Museveni was contacted for a comment by NTV Uganda, all he could say was “Amama Mbabazi is just wasting his time,” a statement he refused to elaborate more on. It is not yet clear whether or not President Museveni is ready to rig the Party Primaries as Amama Mbabazi seems unbeatable through transparent and democratic process.
Patrick Amama Mbabazi is one of the long served NRM- Museveni right hand politicians since 1986 when NRA took over power through gun barrels. Hailing from the same region and ethnic background President Museveni had entrusted him with various successive ministerial posts, a systematic implementation of tribalism and nepotism just as it happens in any other parts of Africa.
Amama Mbabazi was the Prime Minister of Uganda from 24 May 2011 to 19 September 2014 when President Museveni fired him over allegations relating to his presidential bids in 2016 General elections.
Prior to this position, he served as the Minister for Security in the Ugandan Cabinet from February 2009 to May 2011. He also served as the Secretary General of National Resistance Movement, NRM from November 2005 to January 2015.
Amama Mbabazi also serves as the Member of Parliament for Kinkiizi West constituency in Kanungu District, a position he has held since 1996 after the promulgation.
South Sudan or Even The Entire Great Lake Region should Prepare for a Possible Political Change
If President Museveni manipulate and temper with Party primaries as Amama Mbabazi has already declared his presidency, there is a greater possibility of bloody violence happening in Uganda than calm — exactly like what had happened in South Sudan SPLM party.
Reason is that Amama Mbabazi is a strong personality and a senior NRM party member who enjoys enormous popularity and cannot easily be tricked by President Museveni.
Amama Mbabazi is also alleged to have strong affiliations with a good number of powerful UPDF (Uganda People Defense Force) officers, including David Sejjusa, a former Chief Military Intelligence who was sacked by Museveni in 2013 over allegations connected to Amama Mbabazi’s case.
Obviously Amama Mbabazi is people choice in Uganda in forthcoming general elections and a major threat President Yoweri Museveni never had in his entire political career.
And in any case Amama Mbabazi makes it through Party primaries successfully and wins 2016; there will be inevitable changes in political settings that will first affect South Sudan, since it is crystal clear that President Museveni, being a renowned regional dictator and bully runs South Sudan like a family business.
The commercialization of Uganda National Army, UPDF shall also cease with immediate effect should Amama Mbabazi makes it to power; and this means a total collapse to Kiir authoritative regime if the South Sudan Armed Opposition cannot topple the regime really quick.
There shall be retraction of UPDF from all fronts in different countries, including the ones that are keeping Kiir in palace in Juba to come home and serve a purpose of National benefits.
Kenya’s yes-boy, Uhuru Kenyatta will start learning to make independent decisions if Museveni will no longer ill influence him and President Paul Kagame of Rwanda, Museveni cohort will be forced to change his murderous dealings or else face total isolation.
In recap, should Museveni rig the polls, there shall be arms confrontations in Uganda comes 2016 general elections. Should Amama Mbabazi win, then that is good news for the entire East African Countries.
However, either way, the Great Lake Region shall have to get prepared for drastic adjustments in political arena because President Museveni after Amama Mbabazi declaration is now having enough problems of his own to engage him than having time for bullying other states through military might.
Withdrawing UPDF from South Sudan, Somalia and other Countries will now be necessary for his own existence.
And Amama Mbabazi is one possible game changer in this case!