“Do You Think The Agreement Will Be Implemented”?

Analysis

Dr. Riek Machar and Pagan Amun signing the IGAD compromise text in Addis Ababa.

Sept 27, 2015(Nyamilepedia) — Since August 26th many friends on the government side whom I have discussed the signing of CPA-II with have asked this rhetoric question. To mention, this question is not new but it tells the “illusion of the master”. Any particular group in human story that has illegally acquired power and refuses to give it back to the people has struggled with this type of illusion and the outcome has always been the same, peace or war. In either case, the disillusioned master losses either the entire power or the lucrative portion of it.

Without unearthing the world archives for better examples, the NIF regime in the North is a good example. For many years, Bashir and his predecessors thought the South would never break away until they lost it in 2011. For the six years of CPA, Bashir’s regime played all its cards to distort the agreement but no matter how much they tried, over 75% of CPA was implemented.

During the days of CPA even Southerners like Bona Malwal, Riek Gai, and many of their colleagues who are now destroying the south, never felt a bit of shame to criticize the agreement on the world media. They wished the agreement failed! Unfortunately similar individuals are now living the same daydreams. When will these old men learn?

To those who are living in these shadows, these types of agreements do not descent from heaven. They are designed by intelligent and powerful individuals with many strings attached. The forces that compelled the “masters” to sign these agreements in the first place also force them to implement them. They are designed with many possible behaviors of “bad guys” in consideration and no matter how much they would try to resist, they must succumb to obey and implement the agreement at the end. Generals like Malong Awan may seem to have a room to play but all these are parts of this type of illusion.

Here are a few reasons why the deal will be implemented.

1. The two sides have learned that there will be no military solution…nearly all the theories of “winning” a war have failed.
2. The agreement empowers the victims in expense of the self-imposed masters…demilitarization of the capitals and contested regions, withdrawal of foreign forces, power sharing and many more are enough internal pressures…
3. External pressures…threats of isolation, sanctions, arms embargo, asset freeze, foreign forces, deployment of peacekeepers and many other foreign actors are already felt. The king has already succumbed to inferiority manic, feeling treated like a “schoolboy” when the opponents feel uplifted.
4…And many more!

Thus, it would be wiser to implement the deal than fighting a war you will never win!!